Saturday, September 28, 2013

Deluge of horrible headlines will let Watsa get Blackberry for cheap

You have to wonder what's behind the rash of headlines like this one.

Headlines to the effect that T-mobile, the smallest of the big-four mobile providers in the US by a wide margin, would no longer sell the Blackberry, were all over the media this past week.

When you dig into the story a bit you find out that contrary to what the headline says, T-mobile will continue to sell, display, and provide service for the Blackberry.

Combine that headline with the near-billion dollar "loss" announced this week and leaked last week, and therefore reported continuously for two weeks worth of business news cycle, and it's not hard to see why there's been a lot of downward pressure on the share price.

So the T-mobile story is essentially a misrepresentation, the billion dollar loss is actually a "writedown", and the Fairfax offer to buy the company at nine bucks suddenly looks generous.

At least if you take those headlines at face value.

Here's a story from Forbes a few days ago that puts a value of over $20 on the stock.

While that may be a little optimistic, Prem Watsa's dream of buying the company at $9 is a little too opportunistic.

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