Friday, August 3, 2012

Facebook and the great technological unknown

Facebook shares have been sniffing at all-time lows the last couple of sessions, but today they enjoyed a brief spike - up over 10% in a matter of hours.

Why?

Apparently because Brian Wieser of Pivotal Research Group came up with a theory that Facebook could soon be earning up to 400 million a year on Real Time Bidding.

Yup, RTB just might be a cash cow for Facebook. Then again it might not be. We don't know.

Ten years ago there was no such thing as Facebook. Ten years from now there won't be a Facebook either. We don't know the exact nature of the tech innovations that will unfold in the future, but we can be sure they're coming.

Will one or another of those innovations make Facebook obsolete? That is a classical Rumsfeldian "unknown unknown."

Wieser has a "buy" on Facebook now and is looking at a target of $30. That's nearly a 50% bump from where they are now.

I think you'll be closer to that 50% if you just put your money under the mattress.

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